The HAI and Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

This holiday shortened week has brought some weak economic news to the fore, and yesterday the stock market took a steep loss.  Some analysts are pointing to tomorrow’s monthly payrolls numbers as an important event that could significantly impact the markets.  As avid readers of this blog will remember, our Hiring Activity Index (HAI) is a metric based on the proportion of our customers who are actively conducting pre-employment testing in a given month. The HAI touched an all-time high for the month of May.  We were also stable and high for March and April.

We’re not sure whether this strength reflects the hiring environment or a new maturity in our business model as we build a loyal customer base.  Either way, we’re pleased with the indicators and expect that the jobs number tomorrow will likely be decent. The consensus estimate seems to be that we’ll have added between 90,000 and 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs: if the HAI is any guide, as it has been in the past, we’d be surprised if the number isn’t on the high end of that range.